New political landscape – new monetary policy? A closer look at the government’s future plans
- Outlining the government’s priorities and strategies for short, medium and long term
- Assessing the success of the Credit Guarantee Fund: analysing the results of the first round, understanding where capital is being deployed and what have been the lesson learnt
- How will monetary policy post- election look to stabilise the Lira, bring down inflation and regulate interest rates?
Funding in USD/EUR and collecting revenues in TRY: Why developers must find alternatives to USD/EUR bank lending to fund Turkey’s infrastructure
- Can local banks step-in and plug the funding gap left by USDs and Euros in the project finance market? Who are the big local lenders who can lead deals in TRY?
- Caps on USD/EUR funding: Under what circumstances will developers continue to finance projects in the offshore markets?
- ECAs, DFIs and IFIs: What are their strategies to lend to projects in Turkey? How can sponsors and developers secure more funding from these lenders?
- TRY Capital markets: How to structure deals in TRY to attract Turkey’s institutional investors to project finance-linked bonds, sukuk and capital markets securities
- Tax incentives (eligible for investments in projects): Why have they not worked?
Politics and Economics: How are they affecting Turkey’s financial markets?
Turkey is entering a new era, and a number of upcoming changes to its political economy will impact its real economy and its financial markets. This session will bring together economists and analysts to make predictions about how exactly each of the following will have an impact:
- Falling local interest rates vs. rising global interest rates: What are the consequences of a de-coupling?
- Weakening TRY, rising inflation, and subsequent monetary policy to address the FX: How will this translate to the real economy and to the financial markets?
- Politics: What is the short, medium and long-term impact of a change in political structure? Examples from around the world that provide an insight into the future
- Global, political or economic volatilities: Which are going to have the biggest impact on Turkey and how?
- Impact, implications and the future of the Credit Guarantee Fund on the Turkish economy
- What impact will the current state of the real estate sector have on the real economy?
Issuers and borrowers roundtable: Comparing and contrasting financing at the sovereign, corporate and FI level
- Politics, global rates, Turkey’s macroeconomic fundamentals: Hype or new reality? How much has the environment for fund raising changed since November 2017?
- Growth capital vs. refinancing: Where is the demand for capital? Which markets are open for issuers/borrowers?
- Hard currency vs. TRY borrowing: Demand and supply factors for each
- All about hedging: How are issuers hedging FX and rates exposures? What are their strategies?
Analysing the business case for companies to raise equity capital instead of debt
- Opening the market for corporates across the spectrum: How have recent legislative changes paving the way for an equity capital markets revival?
- What is driving demand amongst equity investors locally and globally? Are the drivers sustainable?
- Supply-side and corporate finance assessment: Equity vs. debt, local vs. international – is equity capital cheaper than debt capital? What are the real costs associated with transactions?
- If TRY rebounds will demand and supply reverse, making debt markets more attractive and bring an end to the much-hyped ECM revival?
Refinancing/structuring the wall of Turkish corporate debt: Where to turn and how to (re)structure when repayments loom
- How much US-denominated debt is up for refinancing in 2019-20? How much will need to be refinanced into TRY debt? How much capacity is there in the Eurobond market to absorb upcoming refinancings?
- Negotiating terms with lenders and investors: When to start the process and what is the roadmap towards successfully refinancing liabilities and drawing out tenors?
- When does refinancing turn into restructuring? What impact can the term “restructuring” have on pricing of the liabilities that are being refinanced? Can restructurings happen without companies being associated with default?
- Case studies of refinancings that became restructurings and ended as successful liability management exercises: Why issuers should be encouraged to be proactive when facing upcoming repayments
Where, how and with whom to finance: How are Turkey’s globalising businesses financing expansion?
- Where are Turkey’s global businesses expanding into? What are the target markets and sectors? Are they raising capital for expansion in Turkey or in-country?
- Which Turkish banks are supporting and following globalising businesses? Are Turkish globalising businesses developing new relationships with local banks on-the-ground? What is the role of international banks?
- What is driving Turkish companies to investment and pitch for business abroad? What is the ROI? How much does availability and price of funding per country/region vary, and impact ROI?
Assessing the business case for companies to finance themselves in the TRY sukuk market in today’s financial climate
- First time deals and innovative structures: Why the Sukuk market is taking off in Turkey
- Beyond Participation banks and frequent corporate sukuk issuers: What is the business case for a company that normally raises capital in conventional format to issue TRY sukuk?
- How much capacity and liquidity does the TRY sukuk have? Are conventional cross-over investors buying sukuk? If so, why?
- What has the formation of new Participation banks had on the level of liquidity in the TRY sukuk market?
- A vision and a roadmap to get there: How big can the TRY sukuk market get? What is the plan to get there? What lessons can be learned from other markets that have successfully developed local sukuk industries (e.g. Malaysia, Indonesia)?
Understanding today’s credit market dynamics: How are investors pricing Turkish credit?
- Politics, economic underpinnings of the economy, market dynamics, credit ratings: How are investors pricing Turkey’s bonds?
- What impact are ratings actions having on bond pricing? Why can Kenya price inside its curve in the same week as being downgraded? When and where are investors using ratings in their pricing models?
- Weakening TRY: How are investors hedging their exposure to Turkey? Is the FX an opportunity for newcomers to the Turkish market? What is the business case for inflation-linked bonds?
- Pivot towards Asia: What is investor sentiment in Asia for Turkish bonds and sukuk?
- Buy, sell, hold… Where does Turkey fit within the global fund manager’s portfolio today?
As loan rates peak to an 8-year high, what is the outlook for the syndicated loan market over the coming 12 months?
- What are the success criteria for issuing a multi-tranche, multi-currency loan in todays’ climate? How has pricing been impacted in the last 6 months?
- Who are the new players in the market: Where are they looking to lend? How do they plan to add value to an already competitive syndicated loan market?
- As international banks continue to roll-over huge syndications in uncertain times what do local borrowers need to do to continue this line of credit?
- To what extent are reduction in loan volumes being driven by the borrower side rather than by lenders? What does this mean?
What to do about volatility: How to hedge FX and interest rates:
- TRY revenues and funding in EUR/USD: What FX and interest rate risk are issuers exposed to?
- How a decoupling of The Fed/ECB strategy with CBT is impacting corporate FX and interest rate exposures
- Hedging using derivatives for first timers: When to hedge, how to hedge, and with what product to hedge?
- Working with TCMB’s FX hedging policies: Practical insights into hedging in Turkey
Banking Turkey: How are banks managing their assets and liabilities, and how are international lenders changing the way they bank Turkey in light of the changing credit environment?
- How are Turkish banks managing their assets and liabilities? How much capacity is there to support customer financing needs in TRY? Under what criteria/conditions can they lend in USD?
- Cost of Turkish banks’ credit lines and funding: What are the cost of funds in TRY/USD/EUR?
- Now there is a limitation on USD/EUR funding, what is the role of international syndicated loan bankers? Who can the lend to? What are their strategies and criteria?
- Turkish risk and refinancing: What has changed in 12 months for companies looking to refinance loans with Turkish and international banks?
- ECA, IFI and DFI support: Why multi-source funding and a long term corporate finance strategy is essential for Turkish banks and companies to successfully secure capital from loan and bond markets
Assessing the opportunities for non-bank FIs and mid-sized corporates in the local capital markets
- What are the products available to non-bank FIs and medium-sized enterprises: securitisation vs bonds vs sukuk, compared to price vs risk vs tenor?
- Competing for liquidity: what are investors looking for?
- Assessing what is required for more institutions to access the local capital markets rather than the loan market: education, pricing, structures?
A strategic relationship: Evaluating Chinse investment into Turkey’s economy
- Which projects under the ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative will come to market in the 6-12 months and how will they be financed?
- How can contractors and issuers attract Chinese investment?
- To what extent is Chinese investment plugging the gap for project financing across the infrastructure and energy space in Turkey?
- Understanding the criteria and strategic aims of Chinese participation
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