Day One: Tuesday 6th November
08.00 Registration and coffee
08.50 Chairman’s opening remarks
09.00 A new beginning: A closer look at the government’s plans to return the economy to growth
- Outlining the government’s priorities and strategies for the short, medium and long term
- Assessing the success of the Credit Guarantee Fund: Analysing the results of the first round, understanding where capital is being deployed and what have been the lessons learnt
- How will monetary policy look post-election to stabilise the Lira, bring down inflation and regulate interest rates?
09.20 Politics and Economics: How are they affecting Turkey’s financial markets?
Turkey is entering a new era, and a number of upcoming changes to its political economy will impact its real economy and its financial markets. This session will bring together economists and analysts to make predictions about how exactly each of the following will have an impact:
- Falling local interest rates vs. rising global interest rates: What are the consequences of a de-coupling?
- Weakening TRY, rising inflation, and subsequent monetary policy to address the FX: How will this translate to the real economy and to the financial markets?
- Politics: What is the short, medium and long-term impact of a change in political structure? Examples from around the world that provide an insight into the future
- Global, political or economic volatilities: Which are going to have the biggest impact on Turkey and how?
- Impact, implications and the future of the Credit Guarantee Fund on the Turkish economy
- What impact will the current state of the real estate sector have on the real economy?
Naz Masraff, Director of Europe, Eurasia Group
Timothy Ash, Senior EM Sovereign Strategist, BlueBay Asset Management
Murat Ucer, Economist, GlobalSource Partners
Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Senior Economist, Standard Chartered
Habib Rab, Program Leader, Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, World Bank
Derin Altan, Partner, White & Case
10.05 Where, how and with whom to finance: How are Turkey’s globalising businesses financing expansion?
- Politics, global rates, Turkey’s macroeconomic fundamentals: Hype or new reality? How much has the environment for fund raising changed since November 2017?
- Where are Turkey’s global businesses expanding into? What are the target markets and sectors? Are they raising capital for expansion in Turkey or overseas?
- Which Turkish banks are supporting and following globalising businesses? Are Turkish globalising businesses developing new relationships with local banks on the ground? What is the role of international banks?
- What is driving Turkish companies to invest and pitch for business abroad? What is the ROI? How much does availability and price of funding per country/region vary, and impact ROI?
- Bonds vs. Loans, Hard currency vs. TRY borrowing: Demand and supply factors for each – what options do corporates have? Why are some products more favourable than others?
Burcu Geris, Chief Financial Officer, TAV Airport Holdings
Görkem Elverici, Chief Financial Officer, Sisecam
10.50 Coffee and networking
11.20 A strategic relationship: Evaluating Chinese investment into Turkey’s economy
- Which projects under the ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative will come to market in the next 6-12 months and how will they be financed?
- How can contractors and issuers attract Chinese investment?
- To what extent is Chinese investment plugging the gap for project financing across the infrastructure and energy space in Turkey?
- Understanding the criteria and strategic aims of/to ensure Chinese participation
Necmettin Kaymaz, Chief Projector Director, Invest in Turkey
12.05 As rates peak to an 8-year high, what is the outlook for the syndicated loan market over the coming 12 months?
- What are the success criteria for issuing a multi-tranche, multi-currency loan in todays’ climate? How has pricing been impacted in the last 6 months?
- Who are the new players in the market: Where are they looking to lend? How do they plan to add value to an already competitive syndicated loan market?
- As international banks continue to roll-over huge syndications in uncertain times what do local borrowers need to do to continue this line of credit?
- To what extent are reductions in loan volumes being driven by the borrower side rather than by lenders? What does this mean?
Michael Foundethakis, Partner, Baker McKenzie
John McWall, Group Head of Syndications, Bank ABC
Osman Karakütük, General Manager, Treasury and Internal Operations, Ziraat Katilim
Raouf Jundi, Managing Director, Syndications, Debt Capital Markets, MUFG Securities
12.50 The business case for conventional issuers to debut in the USD Sukuk market: Costs, disclosure, liquidity, trading performance
- How have recent FI and sovereign hard currency Sukuk performed in comparison to conventional issuances in the last 6-12 months?
- Diversifying: Why should corporates consider offshore Sukuk as part of their portfolio?
- Are the costs and disclosure requirements prohibitive? How can issuance timetables be made more efficient?
- How do issuers develop relationships with investors e.g. non-deal roadshows, reporting and investor relations?
- How significant is FX risk for Turkish issuers in a US dollar offering?
Rizwan H. Kanji, Partner, King & Spalding
Doug Bitcon, Head of Credit Strategies, Rasmala
Ahsan Ali, Head of Islamic Origination, Standard Chartered
Nadia Zubairi, Head of DCM, Capital Markets, Bank ABC
Hitesh Asarpota, Managing Director, Head of Debt Capital Markets, Emirates NBD
13.35 Networking Lunch
14.45 Understanding today’s credit market dynamics: How are investors pricing Turkish credit?
- Politics, economic underpinnings, market dynamics, credit ratings: How are investors pricing Turkey’s bonds?
- What impact are rating actions having on bond pricing? Why can Turkey price inside its curve in the same week as being downgraded? When and where are investors using ratings in their pricing models?
- Weakening TRY: How are investors hedging their exposure to Turkey? Is the FX an opportunity for newcomers to the Turkish market? What is the business case for inflation-linked bonds?
- Pivot towards Asia: What is investor sentiment in Asia for Turkish bonds and sukuk?
- Buy, sell, hold… Where does Turkey fit within the global fund manager’s portfolio today?
Ashwinder Singh Bakhshi, Director, Financial Sector Research, Barings
Richard Segal, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, Manulife Asset Management
Alex Griffiths, Senior Director, Fitch Ratings
Todd Schubert, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Research, Bank of Singapore
John Bates, EM Corporate Analyst, Senior Vice President, PineBridge Investments
15.30 Analysing the business case for companies to raise equity capital instead of debt
- Opening the market for corporates across the spectrum: How have recent legislative changes paved the way for an equity capital markets revival?
- What is driving demand amongst equity investors locally and globally? Are the drivers sustainable?
- Supply-side and corporate finance assessment: Equity vs. debt, local vs. international – is equity capital cheaper than debt capital? What are the real costs associated with transactions?
- If TRY rebounds will demand and supply reverse, making debt markets more attractive and bring an end to the much-hyped ECM revival?
Adam Farlow, EMEA Head of Capital Markets Practice, Baker McKenzie
Burcu Ozturk, Chief Financial Officer, Medical Park Hastaneler Grubu
Hale Ozsoy Biyikli, Director, Turkven
16.15 Coffee and networking
16.45 Refinancing the wall of Turkish corporate debt: Where to turn and how to (re)structure when repayments loom
- How much US-denominated debt is up for refinancing in 2019-20? How much will need to be refinanced into TRY debt? How much capacity is there in the Eurobond market to absorb upcoming refinancings?
- Negotiating terms with lenders and investors: When to start the process and what is the roadmap towards successfully refinancing liabilities and drawing out tenors?
- When does refinancing turn into restructuring? What impact can the term “restructuring” have on pricing of the liabilities that are being refinanced? Can restructurings happen without companies being associated with default?
- Case studies of refinancings that became restructurings and ended as successful liability management exercises: Why issuers should be encouraged to be proactive when facing upcoming repayments
Güniz Gökçe, Associate Partner, White & Case
Markus Bayer, Executive Director, Debt Capital Markets, MUFG Securities
17.30 Assessing the opportunities for non-bank FIs and mid-sized corporates in the local capital markets
- What are the products available to non-bank FIs and medium-sized enterprises: securitisation vs bonds vs sukuk, compared to price vs risk vs tenor?
- Competing for liquidity: What are investors looking for?
- Assessing what is required for more institutions to access the local capital markets rather than the loan market: education, pricing, structures?
Adem Duman, Executive Vice President, Finance and Marketing, Vakıf Emeklilik ve Hayat
Tevfik Eraslan, General Manager, Iş Portföy
18.15 Chairman’s closing remarks followed by evening reception
Day Two: Wednesday 7th November
08.30 Registration and coffee
08.50 Chairman’s opening remarks
09.00 Assessing the business case for companies to finance themselves in the TRY sukuk market in today’s financial climate
- First time deals and innovative structures: Why the Sukuk market is taking off in Turkey
- Beyond Participation banks and frequent corporate sukuk issuers: What is the business case for a company that normally raises capital in conventional format to issue TRY sukuk?
- How much capacity and liquidity does the TRY sukuk market have? Are conventional cross-over investors buying sukuk? If so, why?
- What has the formation of new Participation banks had on the level of liquidity in the TRY sukuk market?
- A vision and a roadmap to get there: How big can the TRY sukuk market get? What is the plan to get there? What lessons can be learned from other markets that have successfully developed local sukuk industries (e.g. Malaysia, Indonesia)?
Malek Khodr Temsah, Assistant General Manager, Albaraka Türk Katılım Bankası
İsmail Kemaloğlu, General Director, Toprak Mahsulleri Ofisi
09.45 Banking Turkey: How are banks managing their assets and liabilities, and how are international lenders changing the way they bank Turkey in light of the changing credit environment?
- How are Turkish banks managing their assets and liabilities? How much capacity is there to support customer financing needs in TRY? Under what criteria/conditions can they lend in USD?
- Cost of Turkish banks’ credit lines and funding: What are the cost of funds in TRY/USD/EUR?
- Now there is a limitation on USD/EUR funding, what is the role of international syndicated loan bankers? Who can they lend to? What are their strategies and criteria?
- Turkish risk and refinancing: What has changed in 12 months for companies looking to refinance loans with Turkish and international banks?
- ECA, IFI and DFI support: Why multi-source funding and a long term corporate finance strategy is essential for Turkish banks and companies to successfully secure capital from loan and bond markets
10.30 Coffee and networking
11.00 Funding in USD/EUR and collecting revenues in TRY: Why developers must find alternatives to USD/EUR bank lending to fund Turkey’s infrastructure
- Can local banks step-in and plug the funding gap left by USDs and Euros in the project finance market? Who are the big local lenders who can lead deals in TRY?
- Tax incentives (eligible for investments in projects): Why have they not worked?
- Caps on USD/EUR funding: Under what circumstances will developers continue to finance projects in the offshore markets?
- ECAs, DFIs and IFIs: What are their strategies to lend to projects in Turkey? How can sponsors and developers secure more funding from these lenders?
- TRY Capital markets: How to structure deals in TRY to attract Turkey’s institutional investors to project finance-linked bonds, sukuk and capital markets securities
Semih Ergür, Chief Executive Officer, IC Holding
Sule Kilic, Deputy Country Director, Turkey, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
11.45 What to do about volatility: How to hedge FX and interest rates
- TRY revenues and funding in EUR/USD: What FX and interest rate risk are issuers exposed to?
- How a decoupling of The Fed/ECB strategy with CBT is impacting corporate FX and interest rate exposures
- Hedging using derivatives for first timers: When to hedge, how to hedge, and with what product to hedge?
- Working with TCMB’s FX hedging policies: Practical insights into hedging in Turkey
Murat Gençer, Enterprise Risk Manager, Zorlu Holding
12.30 Chairman’s closing remarks followed by networking lunch and close of conference
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