+44 (0)20 7045 0920
27th February 2018, Ritz Carlton, Moscow
+44 (0)20 7045 0920

Agenda

Russia & CIS’s largest capital markets event

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Agenda

Tuesday 27th February 2018

How the government plans to manage the fiscal deficit and invest in the economy to trigger growth
• Will the government take advantage of the current low interest rate environment to raise capital in 2018?
• How is the Ministry planning to bring the economy back to growth over the coming years? What strategies will be put in place to stimulate this growth?
• A look into the government’s economic agenda for 2018 – what policies will be changing?

Russia’s new monetary policy course: Bank of Russia’s strategy to manage inflation while transitioning to a lower rates environment
• Interest rate projections for 2018/19/20 – at what point will the Central Bank align interest rates with inflation?
• What are Bank of Russia’s expectations for inflation rates in 2018 and beyond?
• Balancing act: How is the Central Bank planning to maintain a sustainable inflation-rates balance in the long-term?

Fed rates, sanctions, commodity prices: How are global and national economic shocks impacting Russia’s markets?
• What impact are the Fed’s interest rate hikes having on appetite for Russian credit? How far up will the US rates have to go for investors to pull out of Russia?
• How are the latest round of sanctions impacting foreign sentiment towards Russian risk? Will foreign lenders and investors tighten requirements in light of new restrictions?
• Where are commodity prices expected to trend in 2018? How will price levels impact funding and growth plans amongst Russian exporters?

How are Russian blue-chip companies managing their funding and capital structures as economic growth slows?
• Re-financing vs liability management: A look at how much debt matures in 2018 and how issuers plan to manage existing liabilities
• Bonds vs loans: How do conditions differ and what are the pros and cons of each market?
• Rouble vs USD: Will issuers continue to opt for rouble bonds in 2018? What is the value they see in raising capital locally vs. in the Eurobond market?
• Will Russian blue chips continue to use technologies such as block-chain and fintech in 2018? What new opportunities will the use of technology create?
• How are sanctioned companies successfully funding themselves? Which markets are open for them? Where do they see value in the market?

How are bankers and investors pricing Russian corporate bonds and liabilities?
• How are Russian corporate bonds priced in the absence of a sovereign yield curve
• What is driving pricing down in the Eurobond market? What could threaten this trend in 2018?
• What is the importance of company presentation when negotiating pricing given the lack of an established reference point?

Rating above the sovereign – what is the scope for corporate rating upgrades in 2018?
• What are the criteria credit rating agencies use when assigning a rating above the sovereign ceiling to a corporate?
• Outlook for Russian corporates: When will credit rating agencies be ready to upgrade Russian corporates? What would speed up the process?
• Private vs state owned companies: Who can be rated above the sovereign?

Drivers of rouble bond issuance: How will changing interest rates and regulatory dynamics impact local market activity in 2018?
• Pros and cons of the Russian ratings system: Who needs to be rated under the new system? How much liquidity can issuers unlock by getting a local rating?
• CBR rate decreases vs Fed rate increases: How are changing interest rates locally and internationally going to impact the supply-demand dynamics of the local bond market?
• Local pension funds and asset managers vs international investors – who are the biggest buyers of rouble bonds? How will this change once rates fall?

How can international banks carve out a niche in the Russian syndicated loan market?
• Evaluating Russian banks’ lending capacity: Are local state owned banks locking out foreign lenders from the market? Where can international banks compete?
• What international banks are actively lending in Russia? Who are the new players entering the market? Where do they see opportunities in the Russian loan markets?
• Ticket sizes, pricing, tenor: What do international banks need to put on the table to be competitive when pitching for a deal
• Secured vs unsecured: What is driving the trend towards unsecured lending in Russia? How have conditions in the market changed to allow international banks to relax securities at a marginally higher price?
• Which international banks are ready and willing to lend beyond Tier 1 corporates in Russia? Which sectors are they looking to lend to?

Unlocking opportunities by using derivatives: Is now the time to lock in rates?
• Global and national interest rate movements: How are Russian corporates using interest rates swaps to hedge their positions?
• Oil, gold, precious metals: What commodities can Russian producers use as a hedge against volatility? What are the differences in strategy depending on the type of commodity used?
• How big is the market for currency swaps in Russia? Is the trend of using swaps to access lower rates sustainable given trading volumes?
• How much appetite do Russian borrowers and issuers have for using derivatives? What are their concerns when looking to hedge?

The CIS Sovereign Issuers Roundtable: A look into the Eurobond experience of Tajikistan and Belarus, and their issuance plans for 2018
Following the tremendous success of Tajikistan and Belarus in the Eurobond market in 2017, the CIS Sovereign Keynote Session offers a unique opportunity to hear directly from the sovereigns about the experiences they had in the capital markets, the process they underwent and their financing requirements and strategies for 2018.

What is next for Russia’s banking sector? How is the consolidation of the market impacting available liquidity in the bonds and loans markets?
• Next steps in Russia’s banking reform: What are the regulators’ plans and targets for 2018?
• Basel III and domestic consolidation: How will the new rules and requirements banks have to meet impact their working processes and funding strategies?
• How is the consolidation of the banking system impacting the amount of available liquidity in the Russian capital markets?
• How is the role of Russian private banks changing in light of the nationalisation of key commercial players? What are the consequences for the competitive dynamics in the market?
• How are subordinated debt write offs affecting investor sentiment? Are bondholders viewing this trend as isolated to the banking sector?

Restructuring, refinancing… liability management: Tactics and mechanisms Russian corporates are using to successfully (re)negotiate existing liabilities
• How are Russian corporates restructuring balance sheets and capital structures to manage their debt profiles?
• How can borrowers take advantage of lower rates in the capital markets to swap outstanding bank loans for longer dated bonds?
• Liability management – how is the process different from a traditional buy-back?
• How can issuers maintain relationships and good will amongst bondholders when tapping into existing bonds?

Financing strategies of Russian growth companies: Bonds vs loans, international vs local
• Russia’s growth companies: How much capital are mid-tiers looking to raise in 2018 to finance new business opportunities?
• Bonds vs loans: What instruments are available to Russian growth companies looking for funding?
• Price, tenor, size: What are the requirements of growth companies? How are bankers and investors assisting them by identifying the right products?
• Rouble vs USD: How is the government supporting growth companies in the local markets? Are similar opportunities available to them in hard currency?
• Pre-payment, mezzanine, trade finance: What alternative structures can play a meaningful role in supporting Russian growth companies? Who has been successful so far?

To find out about speaking opportunities at the 2018 event, email Nedina.Stefanova@GFCMediaGroup.com or call +44 207 045 0908.

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