Growth and/or stability: The Central Bank of Russia’s strategy to manage inflation whilst supporting growth
• Monetary vs. fiscal objectives, growth vs. stability: Is the government’s focus to promote growth or stave off inflation?
• FX and inflation targets for 2019: What is the Central Bank’s forecast? What policies will be implemented to hit targets?
• Cut, hold, raise: What is the target rate of interest in 2019?
What is coming and what has gone: Comparing the global financial landscape in 2018
with what to expect from 2019
• Geopolitics, global trade, growth and markets in 2018 reviewed: How politics and trade negotiations will play out, and how the markets will perform in 2019
• How will the cocktail of rising rates, slowing growth, downgrades, and drying up of liquidity impact global bond and loan markets?
• As the credit cycle turns, can companies continue to borrow at current levels? Where will investors find returns?
Growth, inflation, oil price, and geopolitics: Where is Russia’s economy heading in 2019?
• Detailed look at GDP growth, inflation, commodities and rates: What is economists’ assessment of Russia in 2019?
• How much has a higher oil price boosted Russia’s economy?
• FX and interest rates: Where will the rouble stabilise in 2019? What is the new equilibrium rate of interest? How will this impact the real economy?
• Geopolitical shifts and new alliances: Analysing the new world order and how this impacts Russia’s economy
How investors are balancing macro fundamentals and market technicals to price Russian bonds
• From safe-haven trade to a closed market: Understanding today’s credit market dynamic
• What impact will rate hikes in the US impact investor behaviour for Russian bonds?
• Oil price, ratings, geopolitics as drivers of pricing: What is international investor sentiment for Russian risk today?
• Secondary market performance of Russian bonds versus performance of similarly rated EM credits
Corporate and investment banking strategies in Russia: As competition hots up and fees compress where do banks expect to find well-priced opportunities in 2019?
• Getting a seat at the table: How can banks develop new relationships with Russia’s frequent issuers?
• Are private/international banks able to provide finance at the same competitive rates as local state-owned banks? What advantages can they play on? Where can they compete?
• Over-banked and under-banked: Which banks are looking to lend beyond Russia’s Tier 1 corporates? How are banks looking to develop relationships with Tier 1 corporates?
• New entrants: What are their strategies? Where do they see opportunities in the market?
How are Russia’s blue-chip companies planning to raise capital, manage balance sheets and de-risk their portfolios?
• Growth, CAPEX, liability management: What are Russia’s top tier companies’ fund raising needs?
• Bonds vs. loans, international vs. local: Which markets offer the most attractive rates and terms?
• Green bonds and green loans in Russia: What are the prospects?
• FX and interest rate volatility: How are top tier corporates managing their risk
• How are sanctioned companies successfully funding themselves? Which markets are open? Where can they secure competitively priced capital?
The CFO/Treasurers’ decision-making dashboard: The roadmap towards successful first-time bond and/or loan issuance
• The business case for converting bilateral loans into syndications and bonds: What are the pricing, tenor and yield expectations for Russian private corporates?
• The CFOs risk dashboard – Comparing and contrasting what can be achieved in each market:
o What deal size, price, tenor and yield can private Russia companies’ issue in the local RUB market versus the international market?
o Is a public rating required to issue? Is a local rating sufficient? How much does getting a rating add to the cost of issuance?
• What are the pricing expectations of RUB and USD investors? Are international and/or RUB capital markets attractive to prospective issuers?
• Going international: How and when to hedge?
• What is the business case for borrowing in the local loan markets? What pricing and tenor can private companies secure in the Russian bank market?
• Case studies and success stories: The decision-making process and successful closing of bond and loan deals by private sector companies
The business case for Pre-Payment finance: Advantages and disadvantages outlined
• Understanding the market environment and challenges commodity exporters are facing to secure financing for operations
• Is Pre-Export Finance considered debt? How is prepayment finance being used as an accounting tool?
• Structure of prepayment financing: How is risk spread in prepayment finance? Who bears the majority – the creditor, supplier, or the end-buyer?
• Pre-Export Finance and other Structured Trade Finance solutions vs. Prepayment finance: Assessing the pros and cons
Bringing buyers and seller of CIS debt back to the market: Where are the opportunities in 2019?
• Local currency vs. hard currency: Assessing pricing, size, tenor considerations for CIS issuers
• Investing into CIS: What investors need to know:
• Economic fundamentals of each state and ratings
• Balance sheet health: Sovereign, Corporate and FI
• Funding and investment requirements
• Track record and growth stories
• Pricing, yield and tenor variances between states, banks, corporates: Which CIS issuers price tightest and why?
• Russian investors looking beyond RUB and international investors hunting for yield: What is driving demand for CIS paper? Where does it sit within managers’ portfolios?
• Local, regional and international lenders in CIS: How much local currency debt do CIS issuers have access to? How to work with local, regional and international partners to raise USD debt
Kickstarting underwriting and distributing syndicated loans in Russia: Review and outlook of the market
• As demand for loans continues on an upward trajectory, who are the market players in the Rouble and USD markets? What is the impact on volume, pricing, tenor and size?
• Bringing new lenders to the market: Verdict(s) on the Russian LMA documentation and new syndications law – how have they encouraged new entrants to the market?
• What roles are international banks looking to play in the loan markets? Which banks are actively looking to lead deals and increase exposure?
• How are bankers pricing Russian syndications locally and internationally?
Locking in rates: What is the price of hedging FX and interest rates today?
• Outlook for where FX and interest rates are heading in 2019
• Derivatives in Russia: What has changed since last year? Can issuers access the swaps they need to hedge?
• How big is the market for currency swaps in Russia? Are trading volumes supportive for borrowers to hedging their exposures?
• From roubles to dollars, to yuan to euros: What changes are needed to support 3-way hedging?
Accessing green financing – is this the new untapped pool of liquidity that borrowers have been looking for?
• What policies, benchmarks and structures need to be created at a governmental level to allow ESG financing to flourish?
• Understanding investors criteria for ESG projects and products – what are they looking for?
Drivers of rouble bond issuance: Where is the local currency market headed in 2019?
• How have the local currency markets responded to the push for de-dollarization?
• What are current issuances pricing at in yield and maturity?
• How liquid are these markets and how can this market be deepened?
• Local pension funds and asset managers vs international investors – who are the biggest buyers of rouble bonds, and how do their criteria compare?
• What opportunities are there for alternative currencies? What are the challenges to issuing in alternative currencies, and how can they be dealt with?